Pivoting Your Business During COVID

Some businesses have been the beneficiaries of the COVID-19 pandemic. They were either in the right place at the right time or they seized an opportunity created by the pandemic. Disinfectant product sales were up 230% in March and April of 2020. Clorox has enjoyed great success in 2020. Zoom has become a household word and those of us who regularly attend business meetings likely now use the Zoom platform on a regular basis. Amazon's Jeff Bezos' net worth exploded by $72 billion in 2020. Other online stores and marketplaces such as Wayfair and Etsy have also seen their revenues and profits soar. Pandemic-fueled online shopping has also been very kind to PayPal and other online payment systems. Due to at-home boredom, Facebook and other social media platforms have seen huge increases in usage and associated advertising revenues. Netflix added 26 million new subscribers in the first half of 2020. Grubhub, Uber Eats and DoorDash are all benefiting from the pandemic. UPS and FedEx have experienced record revenues. As people are spending more time in their homes, they are investing in home amenities. Three of my four neighbors added elaborate decks with fire pits and outdoor kitchens to their homes in 2020. Boats and travel trailers have also seen a spike in demand. Vacation rental homes have seen rental nights soar in 2020. And businesses considered to be essential, such as Walmart, have seen their revenues increase significantly.

Other companies have taken advantage of the pandemic in a variety of ways. Many companies have slashed their expenses by reducing their real estate footprints as more and more employees work out of their homes. Other companies have moved their businesses to online platforms. Some local businesses have attracted customers from much larger geographies when they went online. Many churches have seen attendance increase as they switched from live to virtual church services. This transition to online commerce has kept many web designers very busy during the pandemic. Some distilleries have added sanitizer products to their product mixes while other companies have added face masks to their product portfolios. Telemedicine is another industry that has grown significantly due to the pandemic. 

Imagine what an at-home workforce might do to migration pattens and choices of residences. Places with scenic beauty, lower taxes, lower overall costs of living, better school systems, less traffic congestion and similar cultural amenities without all of the hassles of larger cities would stand to benefit from this trend. This also has implications for housing supply and demand and housing prices. Also consider what this might do to office space occupancy and repurposing. The pandemic is also accelerating the demise of brick and mortar retail and especially shopping malls, which are in the midst of being reimagined. 

I have taken my focus groups and brand strategy sessions online and have converted many of my educational offerings from live seminars and workshops to e-learning courses. 

But live theaters, live concerts, live sporting events, airlines, casinos, hotels, restaurants, bars, barbershops and beauty parlors, massage therapists and any other businesses that rely on large crowds or close proximities of people who are not from the same households have suffered. Because of the pandemic and its associated travel restrictions, travel companies and places that depend on tourist spending have also suffered. Which means that many service workers have been fired, furloughed or had their hours significantly reduced. 

Colleges and universities have been particularly hard hit as many have had to give up room and board revenue, while students are less satisfied with tuition rates as more courses are taught online without the social interactions and campus experiences that the students were expecting. Similar issues and frustrations have occurred in delivering primary and secondary education. 

While some people might be counting the months and days until "things get back to normal," it is unwise to have this as an expectation. As the Greek philosopher, Heraclitus said, "change is the only constant in life." And the pandemic has changed a lot. Not only has it changed the fortunes of businesses and individuals, it has also changed business models and even the long-term prospects for some industries. But even further, consider the impact of the pandemic on just one other thing - the environment. Due to decreased commuting, the air got cleaner and millions fewer animals died in our roads. On the less positive side, due to significantly increased online shopping and food delivery, packaging materials have increased almost exponentially. And speaking of the environment, the COVID-19 pandemic is not likely to be the last pandemic in our lifetimes given global climate change. Nor will it be the last disruptive biological, extreme weather or migration event in our lifetimes given the same. The one thing we can count on for the foreseeable future is change and lots of it. 

So, what does all of this mean for you and your businesses and brands? It means that change has already occurred, or if not, it will likely need to occur. And when that change does occur, you may need help rethinking your business model and repositioning your brand to better align them with and to take advantage of the new realities. This is where BrandForward can help. We specialize in helping organizations reformulate business strategies and reposition brands. This includes discovering new revenue streams and new ways that brands can serve their customers. If you are interested in learning more about this service, contact me at vanauken@brandforward.com. 

I wish you and your businesses and brands much success in navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Potential Long-Term Impacts of COVID-19

It is interesting to think about the potential long-term impacts of COVID-19, including the opportunities and threats for businesses. Here is what comes to my mind in no particular order:

• More people will continue to work at home rather than in the office. This means less commuting, which may continue downward pressure on gasoline prices. This may result in more purchases of SUVs and other gas guzzlers. It also means office spaces may downsize, opening up opportunities to convert some of those spaces to residential or mixed use spaces.
• With more people working remotely, the choice of where to live will be less dependent on commuting concerns. People will not need to live within a reasonable driving distance of offices. 
• COVID-19 (and presumably other potential pandemics) spread much more easily in densely populated urban centers. People in Manhattan and other densely populated cities may choose to move to small towns, the suburbs or smaller, less densely populated cities. This may slow down the urbanization of the US. The places that may mostly benefit from this are less densely populated cities with rich cultural elements and a high quality of life. Cities like Portland, ME, Rochester, NY and Ashville, NC come to mind.
• More meetings will continue to be conducted online. Zoom and its competitors will be the beneficiaries of this. 
• More market research may be conducted online, especially focus groups. 
• Big data analytics, automated marketing and personalized offers will continue to increase in their usage.
• Software jobs will continue to be in high demand. 
• More restaurants will want to include an alfresco dining element to their dining experience. This may require zoning changes in some municipalities. 
• Online learning has not proven to be a preferred alternative to the in-person college and university experience and it creates the opportunity for more cheating. Colleges and universities are likely to bounce back, but perhaps with an online teaching option for older professors who are more vulnerable to pandemics.
• Companies offering effective UV sanitization solutions will do well. 
• Use of public parks and open spaces for picnics and other activities may continue to see increased use. Municipalities should focus on maintaining these assets. 
• Child care centers will need to substantially rethink how to maintain safe environments and reassure parents that those environments are safe to continue to grow and thrive. 
• This will likely add pressure to adopt universal health care to protect the most vulnerable, including those laid off of jobs that included health care. Businesses might benefit from not having to offer health care to employees. 
• Despite their discomfort and potential stigma, face masks may become more normal in the US the way they are in many Asian countries. People may be more apt to wear them when sick. 
• Air filtration and circulation on cruise ships, airplanes, busses and subways will need to be improved. This provides a significant business opportunity. 
• Federal, state, municipal and even personal debt may add a drag to the economy for a decade or two. 
• The immigration restrictions put in place during COVID-19 may slow population growth and create more unfilled service and migrant worker jobs. 
• The lifting of environmental restrictions during COVID-19 is likely to lead to more air and water pollution and accelerate global climate change leading to more severe weather, ecosystem breakdown, disease and refugee problems. This will have a significant negative impact on property insurance rates and the need for more National Guard and military spending.
• Online purchasing is here to stay and more people will make purchases online, causing many brick and mortar retail businesses to fold and more shopping mall owners to rethink the mix of businesses in malls (more food and entertainment as a beginning). Online purchases will increase the use of packaging materials leading to the need for more landfills. It will also increase the use of delivery service companies. 
• Home delivery of every kind will increase, including home delivery of groceries. 
• Continued shifts in employment will lead to more minimum wage service jobs including shopping and delivery jobs. This may put pressure on the need to raise minimum wages. 
• More people are likely to invest in their homes and properties making them more pleasant for future quarantines. This includes garden supplies, landscaping services, decks, patios, outdoor entertainment spaces, swimming pools, home entertainment centers, wine cellars, etc.
• Gun sales will not abate and security system sales will increase. 
• Staples and other home office supply centers will thrive.
• Concert halls, theaters, airlines, travel companies and other related businesses may struggle for awhile. This will reduce the quality of life for those who can afford arts, culture and travel. 
• Live concerts will take a hit. Independent music venues will have a difficult time surviving. And musical performing artists will find it more difficult to earn a living. 
• Many churches have found that their attendance has increased with online church services. While congregants value personal interactions and the sense of community, more churches may offer an online version of their church services to extend their reach.
• The problems in nursing homes will likely cause even more senior citizens to want to age at home, increasing opportunities for businesses adapting homes to aging needs, home health care and mobile medicine. 
• Employment and job placement will be in flux. Many talented employees will have been laid off of struggling businesses and industries while other thriving businesses and industries will be looking for talent. 
• Leadership will become more important as more crises arise. The leaders will need to be smart with high emotional intelligence, ethical values, empathy, vision and charisma. 
• Excepting specific industries vulnerable to contagion (such as airlines, cruise ships, travel, etc.), COVID-19 has mostly accelerated the demise of struggling businesses, especially in the retail and restaurant sectors. 
• To remain successful, businesses will have to become more adaptive, nimble, and opportunistic. Being able to pivot quickly is perhaps the most important component of long-term success in uncertain times. 

Societal, Technology and COVID-19 Trends

As marketers, we need to stay abreast of societal and technology trends. Here are some trends that will have large impacts on our lives:

Societal trends:

• While globalization continues, nationalism and "buy local" trends increase
• Rise of the global middle class while the US middle class stagnates
• Increased tribalism in the US
• Global climate change and its consequences - increased catastrophic weather events, pandemics, environmental hazards, damage to cities and infrastructure and creation of refugees leading to national security risks
• Increasing anxiety throughout the world
• Increased feelings of alienation among those who cannot keep up with societal and technology changes
• People connecting through tech (social media, smart phones, online communication platforms)
• Organized religion continues to decline while personal spirituality increases
• The role of women becomes more dominant in society, including in leadership roles (causing a backlash from men who feel threatened)
• Aging population, including increased aging at home
• Fewer and fewer people are employed by large organizations, while the gig economy continues to grow (putting pressure on how health care is paid for)
• There is a continued decline in materialism and consumerism. People have been moving from purchasing products to purchasing services and experiences for decades. A more recent trend is toward simplifying one's life, especially as the average age in the US increases. 
• There is continued movement from capitalism to socialism
• Cohabitation among unmarried partners continues to increase
• Legalization of marijuana, popularity of CBD
• Emergence of "fake news" - What is real? What is truth? The sophistication with which fake photographs and videos can be created is increasing. This will increase tribalism as different tribes will have completely different perceptions of the facts and reality itself. 

Technology trends:

• AI in customer service, especially in telephone and online support
• Digital assistents (e.g. Siri, Google Now, Cortana, Facebook M, Blackberry Assistant, Briana, Hound, Amazon Echo [Alexa])
• Computer vision (including facial recognition)
• Autonomous driving, ultimately leading to decreased job prospects for truckers, taxicab drivers and even Uber/Lyft drivers
• Continued automation of an increasing number of jobs, including in the white collar sectors (e. g. medical internists and contract lawyers)
• 3-D printing (this has applications across a wide variety of industries and even makes it easier to make things at home)
• 5G data networks
• Cloud computing
• Blockchain technology (can aid in sharing money and other commodities with others, proving identity and ownership of assets, run a decentralized marketplace, vote, manage healthcare records, trade cryptocurrencies, etc.)
• Business use of personal data including all of the marketing and ethical implications of this
• Data analytics, leading to personalized and predictive products and services (including in the medical sector)
• Data risk, leading to more jobs in this area
• Extended reality (virtual environments, human-machine interactions)
• Telemedicine, mobile medicine and self-diagnostics using wearable technology
• Continued dominance of tech companies whose online platforms benefit from economies of scale and network effects (leading to more super rich entrepreneurs)
• Decreased ability to remain private online and even off-line (due to security cameras, smart phone tracking, automobile tracking, facial recognition, etc.)

Trends emerging from COVID-19:

• Increased use of online communications (e.g. Zoom, GoTo, Join.Me, ClickMeeting and Cisco WebEx)
• Increased delivery of services and experiences online (e.g. online concerts, theater, fitness routines, etc.)
• This will speed up the growth of home delivery services of everything
• More people will work from home, leading to the downsizing of company offices
• Increased need for a comprehensive national health care policy that works for everyone, including the reemergence of the "single payer" option
• May lead to a desire for less consumerism and more balanced, simplified lives
• Will push people toward online commerce, speeding up the death of struggling retail brands and shopping malls - shopping malls will need to reinvent themselves
• Loss of jobs/income and decrease 401K and IRA asset values may either reduce household budgets and spending or delay retirements and extend working years
• Urbanization has been a long term population trend. People have been moving out of smaller towns and rural areas where there are fewer jobs. They were moving into urban areas. New York City, Boston, Seattle and other major cities were the most popular destinations. Then those metropolitan areas became too expensive so people began moving to less expensive medium-sized cities. COVID-19 has created a mass exodus from major population centers back to suburbs, towns and rural areas. Will this trend continue or is it a temporary trend?

These are a couple of other blog posts I have written on trends:

• Environmental Scanning
• Big Data Analytics
• Marketing Trends Today and Tomorrow
• Leading-Edge Brand Management & Marketing
• The 6 Hottest Trends in Branding
• Evolution of Luxury Brands
• Ten Sources of Potential Share Loss

Brad VanAuken's Brand Aid book has sold more than 25,000 copies, been translated into several languages and is used by business schools throughout the world to teach brand management and marketing. If you haven't read it yet, get your copy here.

And here is a great new book about retail trends by an expert on the subject, friend and former HBS classmate, Steve Dennis. Remarkable Retail: How to Win & Keep Customers in the Age of Digital Disruption. 

Brand Building During COVID-19

What can brands do when people are stuck in their houses and not able to eat out, shop at local shopping centers, go to concerts or do anything else that is not connected to "sheltering in place" and home delivery? And what can brands do when people are laid off, have lost some or all of their income and are watching their retirement nest eggs diminish rapidly as the stock market crashes?

Some industries are more likely to thrive in this environment. Consider Zoom, Purell, Clorox and Amazon.com. But most will struggle, especially as people try to cut back on nonessential household expenses.

Here is what brands can do. Innovate. Restaurants are offering take-out services, sometimes with items that were never featured on their menus. Universities, of necessity, are delivering their courses online. Medical doctors are delivering some of their services via telemedicine. Orchestras are delivering online concerts. Public art galleries are posting virtual galleries online. A friend of mine who loves to cook has started a soup brand and delivery service.

Arts organizations and other not-for-profit organizations are doing what I would recommend that all brands do - offering free content, advice and interactive online experiences to maintain ongoing relationships and to create goodwill with their members and patrons. As a member of Writers & Books board, I have been asked to read and record some of my favorite poems and passages from literature to be delivered to our members for their edification and pleasure. Boy Scouts of America (BSA) has created ScoutShare.org, a website for sharing at-home family activities. The website is open to all families whether they are involved in BSA or not.

Some organizations' free YouTube videos have gone viral. Have you seen or listened to any of these in your Facebook feed? South African Roedean School's rendition of Leonard Cohen's "Hallelujah?" Berklee College of Music Students' rendition of "Love Sweet Love?" Or virtual tours of these art galleries - National Gallery in London, Guggenheim Museum in New York, National Gallery of Art in Washington, DC, Musée d' Orsay in Paris or the Rijksmuseum in Amsterdam?

Now is the time to edify, entertain and engage your customers and potential customers online in the comfort of their homes. They are bored. They are anxious. They are scared. They are feeling claustrophobic. They have cabin fever. Help them out. Stay in frequent contact. Keep your brand top of mind.  Build a greater emotional connection with your customers. Show them what you can do. Show them the best that you offer. Be real. Be empathetic. Give them a reason to feel tremendous gratitude toward your brand.

Now is not the time to go dark. Now is the time to engage with social media, email, webinars, YouTube videos and the like.